Enrollment at colleges and universities has increased for the third straight year, with headcounts across undergraduate and graduate programs reaching 19.4 million - the largest total enrollment in a decade, according to a national report.
The findings from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, released Thursday, complicate the popular narrative about the decline of higher education: Americans are questioning the value of a college diploma and have soured on the cost, yet students are enrolling in numbers higher than pre-pandemic levels. But the gains are uneven across the sector, with private colleges posting declines, and foreign student enrollment, a key source of revenue for some schools, dropping, the data show.
“The story this fall is one of overall steady growth,” Matthew Holsapple, senior director of research at the Clearinghouse, said on a call with reporters Wednesday. “Higher education has stabilized …[but] that growth is looking uneven.”
The growth was fueled by students flocking to community colleges, drawn by short-term credentials and dual enrollment programs that let high-schoolers take college courses. Freshman headcounts held steady overall, despite a decline at private colleges, according to the report. The number of 18-year-olds heading to college last fall increased 2.4 percent, while the number of high-schoolers taking college classes grew 3 percent. Younger students eclipsed the enrollment of older first-year students, who in prior years had fueled growth.
Enrollment among Black, Hispanic, Asian, and multiracial students increased at both undergraduate and graduate levels, while White student enrollment declined, according to the report. Researchers caution that the changes could be overestimated because in recent years an increasing number of first-year students declined to report their race or ethnicity to colleges.
Students from low-income neighborhoods represented a greater increase in enrollment — 2 percent for those in the lower-middle quintile and 1.9 percent for the bottom quintile — than those from higher-income neighborhoods, whose headcounts rose by 0.4 percent, according to the report. The growth was especially notable at competitive four-year institutions, where enrollment among students from the lowest-income neighborhoods grew by 2.1 percent.
The report, a closely watched indicator of sector-wide trends, covers about 97 percent of all enrollments across the country at degree-granting institutions.
Community colleges reported a 3 percent increase in enrollment, adding 173,000 students in the fall, more than twice the rate of public 4-year institutions, where headcounts grew by 1.4 percent or 91,000 students, according to the report. Still, enrollment at public 2-year institutions is down nearly a quarter of a million students compared with pre-pandemic levels, while public and private 4-year colleges have recovered, Holsapple said.
More than a third of the total growth at public 2-year schools is the result of dual enrollment, according to the report. Dual-enrolled students make up 10.3 percent of all undergraduates throughout higher education.
Certificates were especially popular at public two-year schools, which now enroll 752,000 undergrads in those short-term training programs, a more than 28 percent increase since fall 2021. That growth could skyrocket after this summer, when students will be able to use Pell Grants to pay for career training programs that are eight to 15 weeks in duration. Analysts say the new policy, dubbed the Workforce Pell, could strengthen the role of community colleges in meeting labor market needs.
“People are taking shelter in school with economic uncertainty and the idea that the hiring market is tough, that it’s easier to get started at a community college,” said Jeff Strohl, director of Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce. “A certificate is kind of attractive because it has a name of a skill that an employer might be looking for attached to it.”
Public four-year schools were another bright spot in the fall data. Public flagships, such as the University of Connecticut and the University of Idaho, boasted record freshman classes, while the University of California system saw its total enrollment exceed 300,000 for the first time.
Regional public colleges also showed strong growth, said Charles L. Welch, president and chief executive of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities. He noted that enrollment increased at rural institutions and public historically Black colleges and universities. Clearinghouse found a 2.3 percent rise in enrollment at public and private rural colleges, and a 4.7 percent growth in undergrads at HBCUs.
While public universities and community colleges have gained ground, private colleges experienced a dip in enrollment. Both undergraduate and graduate enrollment at private nonprofit schools were down in the fall, by 1.6 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, according to the report. Private for-profit institutions posted nominal gains in graduate enrollment, adding 1,858 students for a total of 250,602, but undergraduate enrollment in the sector fell 2 percent, with the loss of 13,000 students down to 648,120.
Holsapple at the Clearinghouse said the disparate enrollment at public and private nonprofit four-year schools is striking because their headcounts typically rise and fall in tandem.
The drop in international enrollment is behind the disparity, said Barbara K. Mistick, president of the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, which represents private schools. While she cautions against reading too much into one year of data from one source, Mistick said private nonprofits enroll a large share of international students, especially at the graduate level.
“International enrollment really matters,” said Mistick, who noted that the decline in overall enrollment is far from universal among private nonprofit colleges and universities. “If there’s visa uncertainty and students can’t get certainty, then they’re gonna look other places around the world."
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