Would you believe that Oscar is two years shy of 100? The nominees for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced on Jan. 22 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and I doubt there will be many surprises. You can expect to hear “One Battle After Another” in one category after another. “Sinners” will give Paul Thomas Anderson’s movie a run for total nominations. And “Wicked: For Good” will do wicked great in the technical categories, but won’t best its predecessor’s 10 nominations.
Six-time Oscar nominee Thelma Ritter used to throw “Come Watch Me Lose Again” parties on Oscar night whenever she was nominated. To honor her, I’m throwing a “Come Watch Me Botch My Nomination Predictions Again” party in the Globe. It doesn’t matter how badly I do here, so long as I beat my pal Danny in our annual predictions contest. That’s a much harder task than this article, because we predict all the categories.
Speaking of categories, the best casting Oscar category kicks off this year, so I’m adding that to my usual prognostication list.
Best picture
“Bugonia”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Weapons”
This category is tougher than last year. However, there are five sure-bets: “Hamnet” has momentum going into the final stretch, plus, much like several recent best picture nominees, it won the Audience Award at the Toronto International Film Festival. “One Battle After Another” is the critical fave and it’s Paul Thomas Anderson’s “we owe you” year. A “Sinners” miss here would be a major upset. And no matter how many pins I stick in my Marty Supreme voodoo doll, his movie is getting nominated.
Now the crystal ball gets murky. “Frankenstein” is epic enough to qualify. With its Actor award (the new name for the Screen Actors Guild awards) and Producers Guild Award nominations, “Bugonia” is the annual “out of nowhere” nomination. I think “It Was Just an Accident” will get in to honor Jafar Panahi, but I’m torn between “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent” for a slot here. The latter could pull the same surprise “I’m Still Here” did last year. And “Train Dreams” is the little movie that could.
As for the final slot, my brain said “F1,” but Aunt Gladys, Amy Madigan’s iconic villain from “Weapons,” put a spell on me and made me choose her movie.
Best director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
The DGA Awards remain the most reliable bellwether for best director Oscar predictions — but that’s in terms of the Oscar winner. Their nominations, however, often go 4 for 5, which means it becomes a game of who gets replaced. My guess is that Jafar Panahi will be the replacement (he wasn’t on their list), but who gets dropped? The cynic in me says Ryan Coogler, but my heart prohibited me from removing him. So, I went with DGA nominee Guillermo del Toro being dropped for Panahi. Last year, I had the right replacement (Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance”), but the wrong drop (I said James Mangold, but Edward Berger got the ax). Will that happen again?
Best actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
This year’s Actor Award nominations were apparently allergic to non-English speaking performances, but I don’t think the Oscars are going to leave out Wagner Moura for Jesse Plemons like SAG did. The other four nominees are expected, though Michael B. Jordan is the only one in danger of being cut if Plemons gets the nod.
Best actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
The characters these actors played look like a lineup of guests on “The Jerry Springer Show.” You’ve got two mothers in extreme emotional distress, a daughter so rightfully angry at her father she won’t do his movie, another daughter who finds out her revolution-loving mother was really a rat, and a bald Emma Stone. I was so torn between choosing Stone and “Song Sung Blue” star Kate Hudson that I flipped a coin. The coin did not fall in Goldie Hawn’s kid’s favor. Will that coin favor me here?
Best supporting actor
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Del Toro and Elordi belong here — they’re the best things about their respective movies. Sean Penn gives one of the worst performances of the year, but the Academy loves awarding “more acting” over “more subtle acting.” As much as I enjoyed Mescal and Skarsgård, they’re committing category fraud. These lead role wolves in supporting category sheep’s clothing will probably cost Adam Sandler (“Jay Kelly”) and Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”) deserved nominations.
Best supporting actress
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Though I didn’t like her movie, I’m fine with Teyana Taylor’s nomination here. She should have already been nominated for “A Thousand and One.” Mosaku will be a lovely surprise if she gets in. Ibsdotter Lileaas is a perfect example of what a supporting role does in a film. The surprise Actor Award nomination for “Marty Supreme”’s Odessa A’zion made me doubt my original pick of Grande. So once again, I resorted to a coin flip between the two actors. I bet Aunt Gladys knows who the fifth nominee is. Should have asked her earlier.
Best original screenplay
“Blue Moon”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
I’m taking a big chance in choosing “Blue Moon” over “The Secret Agent” here. But Richard Linklater wrote the kind of script that usually gets nominated. This blasted Marty Supreme voodoo doll isn’t working, folks. Help me, Aunt Gladys!
Best adapted screenplay
“Bugonia”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Train Dreams”
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”
This one’s tougher than original screenplay. “OBAA” is a definite, as is “Hamnet.” Then it gets tricky. “Train Dreams” is a valid choice. I don’t buy the “Bugonia” groundswell, but I’m going with it for safety. Only Benoit Blanc could figure out what that fifth slot will be, so I went with his movie.
Best animated feature
“Arco”
“Elio”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
It doesn’t make a damn bit of difference what else is here, because the Oscar is going to “KPop Demon Hunters.”
Best international feature
“It Was Just an Accident”
”The Secret Agent”
”Sentimental Value”
”Sirât”
I’m super-confident about these choices, which means I’ll do terribly here.
Best documentary feature
“The Alabama Solution“
“Cover-Up“
“My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 — Last Air in Moscow“
“The Perfect Neighbor“
“2000 Meters to Andriivka“
I originally didn’t think documentary voters would sit through the five-hour “Moscow,” but I always stink on ice in this category, so what do I know?
Best casting
“Frankenstein”
”Marty Supreme”
”One Battle After Another”
”Sentimental Value”
”Sinners”
This is a brand new Oscars category, so there’s no precedent on predictions. However, the Academy did give me a shortlist of potential nominees. Let’s see how my inaugural turn as the Miss Cleo of best casting predictions goes.
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