An SCHD Comeback in 2026? Why I'm Not Seeing It Yet.


The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEMKT: SCHD) is unquestionably one of the most popular dividend ETFs in the world today. Its stellar track record over the first decade of its life, its ultra-low expense ratio, and its smartly constructed investment methodology resulted in billions of dollars of net inflows over the past several years.

While the investor interest has continued, the strong performance has not. The bull market in technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and the "Magnificent Seven" stocks has not aligned with the fund's typical target of big, durable, and sometimes boring dividend payers. As a result, the Schwab ETF has trailed many of its dividend ETF peers and Morningstar's Large Value category for the past three years.

For the record, I still think this is a great ETF. Is 2026 the year it finally stages a comeback? I'm skeptical.

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