Everyone waiting for the Supreme Court to decide the fate of President Trump’s expansive tariff actions, including Trump himself, must feel a lot like Charlie Brown did in his attempts to kick the football only to have Lucy snatch it away. I sure do.
Twice in the past week, Friday and Wednesday, the justices have released opinions. Twice I was among those waiting for the tariffs decision, which could go against the president and potentially force the Treasury Department to refund much or all of the roughly $264.05 billion in tariffs collected so far. Twice we were all disappointed.
Trump has seemed particularly anxious about whether the justices will agree with his claim that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives him the authority to impose such sweeping tariffs via executive order. The companies suing the administration over the tariffs argue that such power rests only with Congress. If the court agrees with the challengers, Trump has repeatedly warned, chaos will ensue.
“In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!” Trump posted Monday on Truth Social.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Friday that if the administration loses, the Treasury has adequate money in its coffers to issue refunds to the companies within a year, but it would be powerless to force the companies to share that money with the consumers to whom those costs were passed on.
“It’s just a corporate boondoggle,” Bessent said. “Costco, who’s suing the US government, are they going to give the money back to their clients?”
Perhaps realizing he was contradicting the president, who has always claimed that companies, not Americans, are paying for the tariffs, Bessent course-corrected by saying that there has been “very, very little, if any, pass-through,” and he denied the tariffs have contributed to inflation.
While I still believe that the court is more likely than not to rule that Trump’s tariff gambit exceeds his authority. But the longer we wait for a ruling, particularly given the fact that the court has allowed the tariffs to stay in place while its decision is pending, the less confident I am in that prediction. Stay tuned.
This is an excerpt from The Gavel, a newsletter about the Supreme Court from columnist Kimberly Atkins Stohr. Sign up to get The Gavel in your inbox every Wednesday evening.
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