I Was Right About Interest Rates in 2025. Here's What I Think Will Happen in 2026.


As 2025 got under way, there were muted expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. In fact, in early January, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the median expectation was for a single 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate for the entire year.

I wrote an article of bold predictions for the stock market, and one of them was that the Fed would be significantly more aggressive than most investors expected. At the time, inflation continued to slow down, and economic uncertainly was becoming more prevalent. My initial prediction was for a full percentage point of rate cuts in 2025.

Image source: Getty Images.

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